Abstract

Real marketing is a powerful management tool. One principle that applies to it is that everything must be converted into numbers and the results calculated from them. Just how effective marketing analysis is can be illustrated by the following difficult example of finding the answer to the question of whether, when and where the legendary Atlantis could have been found.

Keywords:Determining of Critical Factors; Information Collection; Gaussian curve; Historical events; Mezzo Environment

Introduction

Real Marketing is a practical handbook for managers on how to achieve greater profits, a better market position, competitive advantage, etc. And because it is a handbook, it contains a set of rules on how to act, how to make decisions, a set of guidelines on how to proceed, and defined methods. Some of this is derived from various theories, but most is based on findings from many scientific fields. Marketing can be applied to all of our daily activities, not just for running the companies. If certain defined criteria are met. Even for a field such as the study of history is. As an example of the importance of marketing methods, the search for answers to when and where the legendary Atlantis existed will be used. It is deliberately chosen to be such an extreme, and such a difficult problem. This is to gain a better understanding of not only the possibilities of marketing, but also how effective a tool it can be.

Procedure

In every marketing process, in every marketing task, the following scheme is followed. In the following text, this procedure will be systematically and chronologically followed Figure 1. At the beginning of any marketing process is Problem Definition. This definition also has hierarchy. It needs to proceed from top to bottom, not the other way around. That’s why you start with a “mission”, from that comes a vision, etc. Figure 2.

The following applies to the presented model case of Atlantis.
a)Mission: To provide managers with a better understanding of the importance of marketing and how to work with it.
b)Vision: To show managers not only how marketing works, but primarily how difficult problems can be solved and what results can be achieved with their help, based on a specific example.
c) Strategic Goal: Using marketing methods to find answers to whether Atlantis existed, when it existed, and where.
d) Specific Objectives: According to Figure 1, identify and define the critical factors that are crucial for solving the given task (Determining of Critical Factors).

Collect available information related to the defined critical factors (Information Collection). Then choose the appropriate method(s) for evaluating the information obtained (Finding a Solution) and then analyze it accordingly (Plan Making and Realization). Evaluation of Results. Compare the calculated results with reality (Cycle).

Problem definition

The only written source for the existence of Atlantis is the multiple copies of Plato’s Dialogues (Timaeus and Critias, 427- 347 BC). Plato supposedly heard about it from the philosopher Solon, who heard the story from the Egyptian priests. Moreover, the dialogues themselves are a philosophical treatise, not a historical record. Thus, even at first glance, the credibility of such data is quite low. But it’s important to keep in mind how few written records have survived from that period –and how few texts might have been created across the entire Mediterranean at the time. And that’s when the information becomes significant. All human actions, their motives, decision-making processes, thought processes, etc. are subject to the Normal distribution (the so-called Gaussian curve). And that includes folk tales and fables also. Therefore, in round numbers, it can be reasonably assumed with 97% probability that the mythical Atlantis existed. This conclusion is supported by archaeological research that has shown that ancient fables (e.g. Homer; “Ilias and Odysseus”), Sumerian fables, and much of the Bible are based on actual historical events. Moreover, archaeological findings prove that many of the descriptions Plato wrote about Atlantis are based on the facts.

Determining of Critical Factors

To make the right decision on which factors to consider as critical, it is necessary to understand that there are three types of marketing environments in which any activity takes place. Therefore, marketing analyses need to take all of them into account Figure 3. These three marketing environments are characterized by the basic features described below. The subject has no influence on the Macro Environment (Distant), but it influences it indirectly. The Mezzo Environment (Close) has a direct impact on the subject, but the subject also has a direct impact on this environment. This is a feedback loop. The Micro Environment (Internal) is directly controlled by the subject, but where the influences of both the Mezzo and Distant Environment are present. Given that the presented case does not focus on a specific company or product, but rather an entire civilization, moreover in a completely different economic system, it is necessary to use higher-level factors than those given as the examples in Figure 3. But their basic attributes must be valid for each of these environments.

It is also necessary to include in the selection of critical factors only those to which objective and proved answers can be found. Therefore, it is necessary to include factors in the Distant Environment that humans have no influence over, but which affect their existential conditions. The first factor is the time when the catastrophe of the “submersion” of Atlantis occurred. Determining this time is crucial for further context. In addition, geological conditions, climatic conditions, periods of civilization, known historical correlations, etc. should be included. The Mezzo Environment is characterized by those features (factors) that have been created by human civilization and that have a fundamental influence on human existence in a given period. This includes the technical level, livelihoods and agriculture, mining and processing of raw materials, government organization, transport options, trade, architecture, level of communication, art, etc. For the Micro Environment, it is necessary to find those factors that are completely unique to that particular civilization (subject), and that distinguish it from other civilizations at that time.

Distant Environment Group factors

According to Plato, the catastrophe that “submerged” Atlantis allegedly took place around 9,000 years BC. According to the description, Atlantis should have existed in the Bronze Age and was located in the subtropics. At the same time as the Atlantean civilization, the Hellenic and Egyptian civilizations also existed. There was already a Mediterranean Sea. Atlantis was a large, fertile island. And it possessed a large fleet. Sailing from Greece to Atlantis required passing through the so-called “Pillars of Heracles,” which lay to the south of Hellas. The Ancient Greeks were in a trade war with the Atlanteans over the Mediterranean, and even sent a war fleet to conquer Atlantis. Both fleets were destroyed by the same catastrophe. Atlantis had a deep bay with a large harbor, which was silted up with mud after the catastrophe.

Mezzo Environment Group factors

Until the Industrial Revolution, human settlements were built only in the places that met a number of basic conditions. The local geological conditions were such that they allowed for natural defense and the construction of fortifications. Each settlement was food self-sufficient. It allowed fishing, hunting, farming, herding, breeding of cattle and other domesticated animals. It had sufficient sources of drinking water, not only for household consumption, but also for agriculture and domesticated animals. It had forests in the immediate vicinity, which were used for heating, building materials and production. It usually had some sources of raw materials in the neighborhood that could be traded or consumed in local products. It was always located along some trade route. At the time of Atlantis’ existence, there was writing.

Micro Environment Group factors

Atlantis was a wealthy civilization not only due to a trade, but also because of its products and unknown technologies. They controlled maritime trade across the Mediterranean Sea. And because of it, they came into conflict with the Hellenic civilization. They made an alloy of copper that nobody knew, which resembled gold. It was not bronze.

Information

A large amount of information has been found on the task. The following filters were used in their search:
a) The information had to be somehow related to one of the above-mentioned critical factors, or even to several factors simultaneously.
b) The information had to be verifiable and proven.
c) The information could not be directly linked to the search term “Atlantis,” as this could lead to distortion.
d) If information for a certain critical factor was missing, related information was found that could replace it in terms of informational value (for example, determining the time of the catastrophe).

In view of the multitude of factors and the even greater amount of relevant information obtained, only generalized results closely tied to the above critical factors will be used in this text.

Facts

The civilization of Atlantis as described could not have existed in 9,000 BC. This was the Neolithic period, there were no metal smelting techniques, no writing, no seaworthy ships. There was no Mediterranean Sea [1], no Helladic civilization [2], and much more. The Atlantis catastrophe falls in a later period and it is necessary to use derived techniques to determine it. The Bronze Age in the Mediterranean region dates back to approximately 3000 BC to 1200 BC. [3] Although the first proto-writing appeared as early as the 4th millennium BC, its practical use is associated with the Bronze Age in the 2nd millennium BC. The Phoenician script, which gave rise to the Greek script and influenced the entire Mediterranean region, dates back to the period between the 14th and 11th centuries BC. [4] Thanks to technological advancements in the last century, most of the seabed has been thoroughly mapped, including geological surveys. Therefore, the locations of underwater mountain ranges and hills are well-known. In ancient literary sources, the inhabitants of the Atlas mountain range are referred to as Atlanteans, a region that, due to different climatic conditions, was inhabited, much like the entire Sahara today. Therefore, ancient authors used the name Atlantic for the sea “beyond the Pillars of Heracles”. This refers to the parts of the Mediterranean Sea adjacent to today’s North African coast. Hence the current derivative fallacy that it is today’s Atlantic Ocean. However, the sea between Europe and the Americas was not called the Atlantic until the 17^th century. In the 5^th to 4^th millennia BC, the level of the Mediterranean Sea was 250 m lower than it is today [1]. Before that, the Mediterranean Sea did not exist; it was a dry basin (subduction zone) between two lithospheric plates. Only where the Mediterranean Sea is deepest today were there 4 smaller unconnected salt lakes. There was no connection to the Black Sea. The flooding of this basin with Atlantic waters occurred around the 5^th to 4^th millennium BC, due to geological changes. (Note: Today’s Strait of Gibraltar was created by this flood.)

There are many theories about what the so-called “Pillars of Heracles” were as a maritime navigational landmark. But there is no direct evidence. Nor is there any historical reference that can identify what it was. However, the Strait of Gibraltar could not have been the location for this, for many reasons. People ignore these objective reasons and replace them with presumption. In doing so, they deny their source description (Plato) and other surviving ancient literary data, including the condition of a southern orientation from Greece. Given that under good weather conditions, visibility at sea is about 10 nautical miles due to the curvature of the Earth, these would have to be steep, rocky formations to the south of Greece, pyramid-shaped, and visible simultaneously from the ship’s deck.

The conditions of the southern direction from Greece, the distances that ships of that time could reach, the suitable shape, and the aforementioned visibility are all met by the original shape of the caldera of the Thera volcano (Santorini). There are now models of what this caldera looked like before the “Minoan eruption”. Which took place sometime between 1700 and 1500 BC. [5] (Dating varies according to the method used.)

If, according to the legend, the waters receded and the main harbor of Atlantis was silted up, it could not have resulted in the submersion of the entire island. The only explanation for such a natural event is a tsunami. The corresponding catastrophic mega-tsunami is documented during the eruption of the Thera volcano (Santorini), known as the “Minoan eruption”. On Crete it was 80 m high, on the shores of today’s Egypt it was 60 m high. [6] It was only with the formation of the Mediterranean Sea that shipbuilding began to develop. The first primitive ships capable of coastal navigation in the Mediterranean Sea were built around 1500 BC. Ships capable of navigating the open sea, but only in calm weather, were built by the Phoenicians in the 8th century BC. These were galleys/monoremes known as pentekonters [7]. (Perhaps a Phoenician expedition even sailed along the coast of North Africa.) [8] Triremes were built since around 500 BC [9].

If the ancient Greeks built a fleet of warships capable of attacking Atlantis, such a fleet would have to be comparable in size to the Atlantean fleet. However, the military ships of the entire Mediterranean had the same construction, load capacity, nautical characteristics, and similarly sized crews. Therefore, the size of any such fleet is directly proportional to the size of the population. This means that it must have been a large island that provided a living for at least the same number of inhabitants as Ancient Greece. The greatest expansion of the Phoenicians occurred in the 11th century BC, when they established colonies throughout the Mediterranean. Including Carthage around 800 BC [10]. This means that the area in question has become available for Phoenician maritime trade. Because there was no longer a competing naval force in the Mediterranean that could prevent expansion. This force (the Atlantic Fleet) must therefore have ceased to exist before the 11th century BC. A key condition for any Bronze Age culture was the food self-sufficiency of each settlement. This means that in the Mediterranean region, olive and fig orchards, vineyards, fields with millet and wheat, and grassy meadows for raising domesticated cattle, sheep, goats, horses, etc., had to exist in close proximity to every village and settlement. All agriculture and livestock production has a relatively high water consumption. And this requires accounting for the consumption of each household. Only domestic water consumption could be covered by springs and wells. But all other activities required more abundant water resources. Streams and rivers. After all, according to Plato’s description, the main Atlantean harbor was located in a bay on a river.

But there must also have been extensive forests on the island. Not only for hunting, which was an important food source at the time. But every household needed wood for heating and cooking. Local sources of timber were also necessary for shipbuilding and construction purposes. And the same for charcoal production. In the Bronze Age, charcoal was essential for smelting metals and alloys, and for the production of ceramics, glass and enamels. Based on the given existential factors, it can be inferred that it must have been a large, forested island with streams and rivers, and plenty of pastures, fields, and orchards. Which provided living conditions for a very large population. The most common local resources during the Bronze Age were hides for leather goods, clays for making bricks and pottery, hard wood, ores, and certain minerals. In the Neolithic and Bronze Age, the following main trade routes existed in the Mediterranean: the “Eastern”, which ran along the Rhine river via the Danube and around the Black Sea, joined the “Silk Road”. “Salt and Amber Road”, which ran from the Adriatic to the Baltic, and passed the Alps on the eastern side. The “Southern Salt Road”, which ran from present-day Morocco across the present-day Sahara and connected to the “Silk Road”. (Note: At the times in question, the Sahara was not a desert, but it was fertile, watered and inhabited land.) Next, the “Bronze Route,” which is now marked by megalithic structures on islands in the Mediterranean. Cyprus, Crete, Malta, Sicily, Sardinia, Mallorca, Andalusia. Tin was transported from west to east along this route, and copper in the opposite direction. This route was land-based even in the 5_th to 4_th millennium BC. But after the flooding of the Mediterranean Sea, it was served by ships from about 1500 BC.

One of the distinguishing features Plato mentions about Atlantis was the local production of unknown enamels, original pottery and an unknown copper alloy. The so-called. “Orichalcum,” also known as “Oreikhalkon,” as Plato refers to this alloy in his Dialogues, Timaeus and Critias. Based on archaeological findings, it has been proven that this alloy, as it was called in antiquity, was brass. The production of brass in the Mediterranean region dates back to the 3^rd millennium BC, when it was an important trade commodity. And it is documented that knowledge of the technology of its production has spread unevenly in the area. In the 3^rdmillennium BC, it was produced in a location in present-day Serbia and in Crete. The alloys from these two deposits differ not only in chemical composition but also in production technology. Brass was then produced in Cyprus in the 8^th-7^th centuries BC [11]. It is known from archaeological excavations in Crete that the Minoan culture produced technically advanced pottery and enamels that were not produced anywhere else. And they traded these products [12]. Based on the above verified facts, two working hypotheses were formulated.

Working hypotheses

a) H1: Atlantis was an island in the Atlantic Ocean, existed 9,000 years BC, and the entire island sank.
b) H2: Atlantis was a Minoan civilization on Crete, and when the Thera volcano (Santorini) erupted around 1700 to 1500 BC, the resulting mega-tsunami destroyed the island’s civilization.

Evaluation of hypotheses

For the following calculations, only those factors were used that are based on the proven facts under the critical factors and that are valid for both hypotheses simultaneously. If the relevant factor could not be tested for any of the hypotheses, it was omitted not only for that hypothesis but also for the anti-hypothesis.

The Value/Weight/Impact method was used to calculate and compare the two working hypotheses. Where “Value” was used as the current relative number of occurrences of the factor in the literature data. This factor must have been mentioned in the original text of Plato’s Dialogues Timaeus and Critias. A scale of 1 to 5 was used for the calculation, with 1 being the lowest occurrence and 5 being the highest occurrence. The probability of a given factor was used to determine the size of the “Weight”, taking into account the evidence and the facts above (Table 1).

Note: Since it is not possible to work with zero (0) in marketing, such a value is replaced by 0.01 when determining “Weight”, which corresponds to 1%. Marketing events and data that are worth less than 1% are considered irrelevant. Thus, in cases where it is shown that a factor could not be present, a number of 0.01 has been used as a “Weight” size.

Conclusions

Hypothesis H1, that Atlantis was in the Atlantic Ocean 9,000 years BC and the island remained submerged, has a probability of 34% compared to H2. This hypothesis is rejected. Hypothesis H2, that Atlantis was a Minoan civilization on Crete in the Bronze Age (2,000 BC) has a 66% probability compared to H1. This is roughly twice the probability value. This hypothesis is accepted. Comparing the results with the original Problem Definition, it can be concluded that Atlantis existed with a high probability (97%) and was a Minoan civilization on Crete.

References

1. Marzocchi Alice, Flecker Rachel, Baak Christiaan GC van, Lunt Daniel J, Krijgsman Wout (2016) Mediterranean outflow pump: An alternative mechanism for the Lago-mare and the end of the Messinian Salinity Crisis, Geology 44(7): 525.
2. Athens: Foundation of the Hellenic World; The Bronze Age on the Greek Mainland: Early Bronze Age – Early Helladic I, Helladic II, Helladic III pp. 1999–2000.
3. Jacques Barzun; Donald Weinstein; (Editors of Encyclopædia Britannica); The Metal Ages, history of Europe.
4. Senner Wayne M (2020) The Origins of Writing, Bison, University of Nebraska Press.
5. Jens Karstens, Jonas Preine, Gareth J Crutchley, Steffen Kutterolf, Willem GM van der Bilt, et al. (2023) Revised Minoan eruption volume as benchmark for large volcanic eruptions, Nat. Commun.
6. Paris, Raphael (2022) A Minoan and a Neolithic tsunami recorded in coastal sediments of Ios Island, Aegean Sea, Greece, Marine Geology p. 452.
7. Anderson, Roger Charles (1976) Oared Fighting Ships: From Classical Times to the Coming of Steam, London, Argus Books.
8. Hanno, Oikonomides Al N (1977) Periplus, or Circumnavigation (of Africa), Chicago, Ares Publishers.
9. John J Hattendorf (2007) The Oxford Encyclopedia of Maritime History, Oxford University Press Print.
10. Maria Eugenia Aubet (2011) The Phoenicians and the West: Politics, Colonies and Trade, Cambridge University Press.
11. Earle Radcliffe Caley (1964) Orichalcum and Related Ancient Alloys: Origin, Composition, and Manufacture: With Special Reference to the Coinage of the Roman Empire, Michigan University, American Numismatic Society.
12. Heraklion Archeological Museum, Crete, Greece.