Relevance of Indigenous Knowledge in Weather and Climate Forecast for Planning Farm Activities by Farmers in Imo State, Nigeria

The study assessed the relevance of Indigenous Knowledge (IK) on weather and climate forecasting for planning farm activities by farmers in Southeast, Nigeria. Questionnaire was used to elicit information from a total of 360 farmers, complement with oral interview. Mean (M) was used to analyze data. Results showed that IK indicators commonly used for weather and climate forecasting fall into 3 categories namely trees, animals and atmospheric indicators. The IK indicators used to predict the dry season and harmattan were-fruits drying/falling off from trees, increase occurrence of termites, shedding of tree (M=2.40), appearance of rainbows (M=2.53) among others. The indicators for onset of the rains included flowering of trees (M=304), heavy budding of acacia tree species (M=300), dormancy breaking in certain tree/fruit species, Others were appearances of large number of ants, frequent sounds of frogs, appearance of ant hill, appearance of millipedes, appearances of army worms, dark clouds appearance, body feels heat at night, increased body pain, mist covering hilly areas among other signs.As a recommendation, the knowledge of indigenous peoples should be included when designing climate change adaptation strategies in SSA.


Introduction
Agriculture is a complex and challenging operation due to anumber of factors, such as low soil fertility, changing social and political situations, an unfavorable economic environment and a variable climate [1]. Farmers in semi-arid areas depend solely on rainfall, yet this is typically variable, both spatially and temporally. There isevidence to show linkages between droughts and development (or lack ofit), given that rain-fed agriculture, which is very sensitive to weather, accounts for 70% of food production across Africa [2,3]. This ushers in the need for effective early warning systems that contribute to addressing the cycle of droughts and subsequently, reduce their negative impacts [4]. Effortsby farmers to address these challenges and their use of indigenous knowledge systems (IKS) as a key component have been highlighted in literature. One of the key uses of IKS includes using various forms of traditional indicators to predict weather and climate and to respond to climate risks Joshua, et al. [5]. There is evidence to show that, as a result, farmers have developed and relied on traditional systems to adapt to variable rainfall. These traditional systems worked for centuries as they relate to local lifestyles, institutional patterns and social systems Mbilinyi, et al. [6].
Reducing the impact of climate variability and change on food production and livelihoods can be achieved. This is in part by using available climateinformation to anticipate and manage the impacts related to climate risks [7]. Climate information is available from two mainsources: meteorological forecasts and indigenous knowledge (IK). This information can help farmers to manage their crops and livestock to reduce risk during unfavorable seasons and maximize opportunities during favorable conditions. There is scope in Africa to substantiallyincrease the use of climate information and services in planning to reduce the threat of climate variability and change and achieve developmentgoals. More effective use of climate information and services by both vulnerable groups and institutions charged with managing impacts ofchanging climate, will enable the climate-sensitive sectors of African societies to cope better with the natural variability of the climate system. This will allow better adaptation to the impacts of climate change.
However, little attention has been paid to the connection betweenindigenous perspectives and observations to potential climate responseor adaptation strategies. It is also disturbingthat national adaptation plans in Africa, which act as frameworks for implementing adaptation programes, place limited significance on IKS as shown by studies conducted across the continent Nkomwa, et al. [8]. To date, little is known about specific details of farmers' physical and biological knowledge and how this knowledge is used to make farm management decisions [1]. This paper, therefore, fills that need. The specific objective was to ascertain farmers use of indigenous knowledge in weather and climate forecast in Imo State.

Methodology
The study was carried out in Imo State of Nigeria. Imo State is located in the South-eastern zone of Nigeria and lies between latitude 4045oN and 70 15 N and longitude 6o 50E with land area of 5,530 km 2 . There are twenty-seven (27) Local Government Areas in the State. The state has a Ministry of Agriculture that supervises Agricultural activities in the state under the state ADP (Agricultural Development Project). Imo State Agricultural Development Program is structured into three (3) Agricultural Zones viz Okigwe, Orlu and Owerri. Okigwe and Orlu Agricultural Zones have 10 Extension Blocks each, while Owerri has 18 Extension Blocks. The population of the study consists of all registered farmers (within the age bracket of 50 and above, this is for experienced farmers to talk to us) in the 38 Blocks that make the three agricultural zones. A list of all registered farmers in the zone (with age 50 and above) was obtained from the ADP office in the zonal headquarters. The list has a total number of about 3600 farmers and 10% was selected which gives a total sample size of 360 farmers. Data collected from use of questionnaire were analyzed using descriptive statistics. This includes use of mean, presented in table to achieve the objectives of the study, especially objectives 1 and 2, While objectives1 and2 will be achieved on a three-point Likert-type scale of strongly agree, agree, and disagree assigned weight of 3, 2 and 1. The weighted index were added to give 6 divided by 3 to give 2. Any value less than 2 was regarded as not signs for weather forecasting. Any value less than 2.50 was not accepted while values of 2.5 and above was taken as accepted. Table 1 revealed that traditionally, rural farmers have for generations relied on indigenous knowledge to understand weather and climate patterns in selecting crops and farming practices. Table 1 showed indigenous indicators comprising trees, animals and the atmosphere for preparation for farming activities. The indicators for dry season included drying of fruits on trees with a mean score of (M=2.11),immature fruits dropping before maturity (M=2.19), increase occurrence of termites (M=2.08), sheddingof the leaves,extended cold days in the environment (M-2.96), strong winds when about to rain (M=2.23) , cold weather amid rainy season (M=2.27), morning star appearing in the east (M=3..00), red clouds appearance on sky (M=2.13) and appearance of rainbows (M=2.53)  Table 2 showed great signs of rainy season using indigenous weather forecasting. Since most of the agricultural practices in sub -Saharan African is rain -fed, knowledge of the onset and cessation of rains is key to the timing of most farm activities. Based on results from field as shown in Table 2, tree indicators of onset of rainy season includes; flowering of peach tree Prunus persica (M=3.04), heavy budding of the acacia tree species (M=3.01), development of young leaves and grasses in fields (M=2,20).

IK indicators of seasonal forecasting
Due to the diversified nature of rural livelihoods, farmers' knowledge sources, and their needs, different types of producers and production systems, African farmers do not generally use a single forecasting indicator, rather, they consider signs, indicators and chaos that arise at various times and in multiple settings Roncoli & Luseno [9,10]. The significance of forecast indicators also varies for different crop activities.
Early warning systems have proved to be indispensable in preparing for climate events such as the onset of rainfall, floods, cyclones and droughts. In West Africa, Tall & Braman [11,12] demonstrate how seasonal rainfall forecast information is used to reduce the loss of lives, property and infrastructure caused by floods. Local communities and farmers have developed a new knowledge base for predicting climatic and weather events based on observations of animals, plants and oceanic bodies Roncoli, et al. [13]. Understanding how local communities perceive and predict rainfall variability is key to communicating scientific weather forecasts.
Indicators used by farmers to predict the quality of the rainy season are available throughout the year Roncoli, et al. [14]. Just like scientific forecasts, indigenous forecasts rely on observation and interpretation of specific phenomena. The indicators farmers mostly rely on include fruit production and tree phenology, animal behavior, wind and atmospheric phenomena, and spiritual manifestations in the form of divinations, visions and dreams. Elderly male farmers generally have more knowledge than younger male and female farmers. However, indicators are usually gender specific, with men relying more on certain indicators thanwomen, and vice versa. These are discussed below:

Trees:
The behavior of trees in general and fruit trees plays a significant role in determining weather patterns in among the Ibos of Southeast, Nigeria. Fruit trees like mango are and Oha (Ptericarpusspp) frequently used to predict the eminence of the rain season and the quantities of rainfall in any given agricultural season. The people have even been able to harness the behavior of exotic trees like the mango trees in their extrapolation. According to one respondent, there is an abundance of fruits towards the encroachment of the rain season, people would know that the season was likely to experience low rainfall patterns. On the contrary, if the fruit trees bear very little fruits, people likewise come to know that they would have plenty of rainfall. Many of our informants pointed out that when the fruits ripen earlier than the usual, the implications will mean that the season will experience a good rainfall pattern. As observed, when Oha leaves wither and peel off, it means that a dry spell is imminent. People may panic and it supplies a moment when people resort to the performance of rituals meant to evoke rain to come. For instance, there are rain makers in Igbo land (rain-making) ritual in which the traditional elders play a significant in their capacity as religious functionaries. The assurance that the traditional ritual has been 'heard' is reflected in the sudden blossoming of tree leaves. The blossoming of leaves is perceived as life-generative, and must be actualized by the coming of rainfall. Trees as part of the natural organic ecosystem do respond to meta-physical powers that lie beyond the grasp of the mundane world.
A key informant told us that most local trees that farmers use to forecast rainfall begin flowering beforethe onset of the rainy season. The phenology of these trees signals good rainfall or drought. The variation of fruit or flower productionalso influences farmers' expectations. The abundance of fruits on oneside of a tree, for example, may indicate in which area the rains will comefirst. Trees which are located near houses or fields and are observed overa long period are normally used to predict rainfall.

Animals
Certain behavior of birds can also be a helpful barometer in predicting the arrival and intensity of a rainy season. On one hand, once the migratory birds all referred to as stock) begin to surface in a particular environment, then the rain season is said to be imminent. Birds sing melodious songs as signs of rain. The continuous singing, by the day and by the night, heralds the commencement of the rainy season. Mapara [15] avers that people could also foretell whether rains are going to fall in the next hour or two if they hear (rain bird). On the other hand, however, when the migratory birds vanish from a particular area or region, it signals the decrease of rain and eventually its departure.
Other animals, heralds the imminence of rainfall in a particular area in a particular season. This is true also with the amphibian like frogs. Once frogs begin to 'hiss' incessantly, people come to realize that the rain season is 'around the corner'. There are certain types of frogs that are used to predict the intensity of rains. For example, some big and brownish frogs known as Akiri and Mbaraawo (bull frogs), once they appear in large numbers in a water pond, it is an indicator of high rainfall patterns in each locality.
The Ibo people use several certain insects to predict weather patterns. When insects like Termites begin to surface and continuously move around collecting grass for storage, it means the rain season is imminent. Usually, cricket (MBUZO) emerge for two or so days and continuously collect grass in large quantities for storage. After the collection of grass (food), these insects vanish and hibernate, but will not be threatened by starvation should the rains continue nonstop for some time. Based on oral interview with farmers, the behavior of these insects is an indication that the growing season would be good so much that people are expected to work hard just like the insects.
The above agrees with Luseno, et al. [10] who posited that the behavior of animals such as livestock, birds, insects and amphibiansis also used by farmers to predict the onset of the rainy season. Thesongs and movements of different birds to signal the onset of rains hasbeen reported in Ethiopia, Mali, Nigeria, Swaziland, Tanzania and Zimbabwe, among other countries in SSA. Farmers predict theamount of rainfall depending on whether the bird is singing withhappiness or not.When the bird sings with a clear, sharp voice it means the bird is happyand indicates to farmers that a lot of rain that will fall, and vice versa.

Atmospheric phenology
The visible phases of the moon are associated with rainfall, drought or a dry spell. The full moon is expected to indicate dry weather. Star constellations and the time of their appearance indicate rainfall patterns hence, when farmers should plant their crops. Changes in the appearances of stars and the moon provide a framework of sequences for expected rain events and mark key points in relation to cropping calendars. During the year and within seasons, farmers expect natural phenomena such as temperature, winds, clouds and rain to conform to certain patterns that they define as the norm Roncoli, et al. [14]. The beginning of the cold season and its end follow certain rainfall patterns. Increasing hot temperatures indicate a good rainy season Isaac, et al. [16], whilst violent winds during the dry season may predict a bad rainy season. The direction of winds is also associated with rainfall patterns.
Oral discussion showed that the people are good at using the nature of the wind directions to predict rainfall patterns. The direction of wind in the context of a locality is important in the determination of rainfall patterns. For instance, the local farmers know that when wind blows from the eastern side then the rain season is just 'around the corner'. If the wind is continuous, it 'tells' that more rains would come. The moon is another terrestrial object the people utilizes to forecast weather patterns, especially when interpreted in conjunction with the dynamics of cloud cover. The moon is relied upon to predict the imminence and intensity of the rain season.

Conclusion
Most agricultural activities in communal areas are closely linked to the weather, and communities often have a store of local weather and natural disaster knowledge. Plenty signs are used by the indigenous people inforecasting the onset and cessation of the Agricultural Research & Technology: Open Access Journal rain season. Indicators for theonset of rain, include changes in the behavior of domestic animals suchas cows, calls by bird species, the appearance or disappearanceof insects, such as termites and grasshoppers, the wind direction, theappearance and movement of migratory birds, the color of the clouds ata given time of day, and night temperature variations.